A poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights in mid-August shows that Keri Lake has narrowed Ruben Gallego’s lead from 10 to 7 points. This latest poll shows Gallego at 47% of the vote versus Lake at 40%.
The public is generally skeptical of political polls, and for good reason. Polls often fail to reflect the outcomes of the event that were the objects of the polls. However, Noble’s polling regarding the campaign for Arizona’s next U. S. senator has been very accurate so far.
While it is clear that the all-important momentum is in favor of Lake, the rest of the data indicates that she has some challenges ahead of her. The polling data shows that both candidates have a lot of work before they can end up victorious, but that same data shows three areas in which Gallego is in a better position to conquer those challenges.
First, we have the question of party loyalty. Because of an advantage in party registration, if every registered republican and every republican-leaning independent votes for Lake, and the direct opposite happens with Gallego, Lake is the clear winner. But the poll data does not support that scenario. It shows that Lake has 81% republican support and 29% of independent support. In this area, Gallego is clearly ahead with 90% of democrat support and 46% of support from independents.
Next, we have the favorability vs. unfavourability issue, in which Lake trails. Gallego’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 48% to 34%, while Lake’s is 37% to 50%. While doable, reversing this may be Lake’s most difficult task.
The third area of concern for Lake is the trust in candidates on the important issues. For example, no one should be surprised that Gallego is ahead on climate change and abortion. These are core issues for ultra-liberal democrats. But Lake should be way ahead on conservative core issues like gun policy and inflation. Instead, she is slightly behind Gallego regarding those issues.
The main take away from this poll is that Lake’s current momentum places her in a good position to continue to advance to victory, but sustaining that momentum will most likely require a lot of effort from her campaign.
