New polling shows Kari Lake is likely to win the Arizona GOP U.S. Senate primary election on Tuesday. However, her chances may not be so high when facing Ruben Gallego in the November election.
Lake will be going up against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has been trailing her in the polls.
“Kari Lake leads Mark Lamb 49% to 38% in the GOP Senate primary,” reads the report from Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights. “When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, Lake reached the coveted 50% threshold of support while Lamb’s support remained unchanged.”
Lake has maintained a conservative, Trump-aligned platform, which pollsters have found is endearing to her base but struggles to attract the much-needed swing votes of independent and unaffiliated voters.
“Lake looks promising in overcoming the first challenge in the Senate race – winning the primary – but she’ll have to shape her general election strategy to capture the key voter blocs she’s currently struggling with to compete with the Democratic candidate,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Lake lost to then Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the 2022 gubernatorial election. She has since launched a legal battle to overturn the results that is still ongoing. Lake was criticized for telling supporters of late U.S. Sen. John McCain to “get the hell out” of a campaign event, to which she later walked back.
Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy for Highground Public Affairs, said that he believes Lake is going to win the primary election, but thinks that she will struggle to win the general election if she continues her campaign in the way it has been going.
“She is struggling to appeal to the broader electorate,” Bentz said. “She is a very successful primary candidate and does a very good job of rallying the base, but just as we saw in 2022, she struggles against a more centrist candidate in the general election. She mirrored her image and mirrored her strategy to look like Trump. In fact, she’s one of the few candidates that doesn’t need Trump’s support as much as she acts like Trump herself.”
Gallego has softened his progressive firebrand image to appeal to a broader audience.
“He’s [Ruben Gallego] a proven fighter for all Arizonans — Democrats, Republicans, and Independents,” said a spokesperson from Gallego’s campaign. “She [Kari Lake] does not represent Arizona values and cannot bring people together to solve our most pressing problems, and that is exactly why she will lose once again this year.”
Some Republican leaders have even publicly stated that they support Lamb instead of Lake, even though he is not as well-known, simply because they think Lake won’t be able to win against Gallego.
According to reporting by The Washington Post, Randy Kendrick, a top GOP donor in Arizona, sent an email to her “Christmas card list,” urging them not to vote for Lake.
“I am trying to make more people aware of Lamb because, according to our polls, if people are made aware of him they prefer him over Lake and certainly over [Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben] Gallego,” Kendrick wrote in an email obtained by Post.
Ed Morabito, senior advisor for Lamb’s campaign, said their campaign is urging Republicans to vote for Lamb because Lake has “zero chance” of winning the general election.
“According to all surveys we’ve seen, including Noble polls, over 55% of the general electorate has a negative opinion of Kari Lake,” Morabito said. “Lamb has a negative of 25%, which is normal for a candidate. Among independents, 80% will not vote for Kari Lake. Lamb is 20%.”
“Republicans are rightly concerned about losing the general election to Ruben Gallego,” Morabito said. “All the surveys we’ve seen indicate that Mark Lamb is best suited to win the general election by rallying Republican voters and attracting independents. That’s the only way we can win.”
Lake’s office did not respond to requests for comment in time for publication.
Arizona’s primary election is Tuesday, though many voters send their ballots in via mail. Voters can visit my.arizona.vote to find their polling locations.
In order to participate, voters must bring valid identification either a photo ID or two forms of ID if they don’t include a photograph.
Secretary of State Adrian Fontes encourages people to be aware of the upcoming heatwave when going to polling locations, and many locations will be equipped with cooling centers providing relief from the heat. More information on what to expect on Election Day can be found at azsos.gov/elections/voters.
