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Despite how ugly things have gotten for the Chicago Cubs, there is still plenty of time to figure things out in the remaining 104 games.
The turnaround could start as early as Saturday when Justin Steele takes the mound against the Cincinnati Reds.
Let’s take a look at the matchup to see why the Cubs — losers of eight of their last nine games — should be able to win outright.
Reds vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Reds +114, Cubs -134
- Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-188), Cubs -1.5 (+155)
- Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105)
Odds via FanDuel
Reds vs. Cubs prediction
Steele, who suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day, owns a 4.45 ERA across just 32 1/3 innings, but he was pegged as the Opening Day starter for a reason after finishing fifth in the Cy Young vote last season.
He was brilliant last time out in Milwaukee, throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing only three hits. One good start doesn’t mean he’s back on track, but in Steele’s case, it might mean a little more. He owned a strong underlying profile entering that matchup, and his arsenal is grading out comparably to last season when he put up a 3.06 ERA.
Steele owns an expected ERA (xERA) of 3.21 this season and a solid K/BB ratio of 4.43. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Pitching+ rating of 105, which are both improvements upon last season’s numbers.
A big key to Steele’s 4.45 ERA is his career-low strand rate of just 68.8%. Whether that’s a bit of bad luck or lack of feel for his stuff in the big moments, it seems reasonable to bet that he will begin to be more effective with runners on as he gets more innings under his belt.
The Reds present a great opportunity for Steele to build on his excellent showing in Milwaukee. Over the last month, Cincinnati hitters owned a wRC+ of just 90 while striking out 23.7% of the time, with a BB/K of just 0.38.
The Reds have also been quite middling in splits versus left-handed pitching recently, with a wRC+ of 86, an OPS of .650 and a hard-hit rate of just 24.7% over the last 30 days.
Cubs vs Reds
John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune Hunter Greene gets the start for the Reds on Saturday against the Cubs.
Hunter Greene always had the arm talent to be one of the league’s better pitchers, and with some slight adjustments this season, he has found excellent results. He owns an xERA of 2.56 and an xFIP of 3.95 this season. His arsenal continues to rate extraordinarily well (126 Stuff+).
Greene’s average fastball of 97.6 mph is the second-highest average in MLB among starters to throw at least 20 innings. Location has remained somewhat of a concern though, as Greene owns a Location+ rating of just 97.
The Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 96 over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .672. With Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson back in the lineup though, they should be able to improve upon that mark going forward.
Reds vs. Cubs pick
There’s no doubt things have been tough lately for the Cubs, but this looks like a good time to back them getting right with a big win at Wrigley Field. Their offense has been better than that of the Reds, specifically in the splits relevant to Saturday’s game.
Steele looks well on his way to being an elite starter again, and if we had seen a larger sample of him in top form, the number to back the Cubs here would likely be worse.
Bet Chicago to get moving in the right direction again with an important win Saturday at anything better than -140.
Pick: Cubs moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
