Mark Schofield’s “Way Too Early” 2023 NFL mock draft

If the 2023 NFL draft begins with the Houston Texans on the clock, one would assume that the Davis Mills Experience will draw to a close. Mills showed promise during the 2021 season, at times looking like the best of the 2021 rookie class of quarterbacks.

But if the Texans’ own pick in the first round — they have two thanks to the trade with the Cleveland Browns — has them atop the board, then quarterback is likely on the to-do list. This will certainly be a fascinating draft class to study, but from where I sit, C.J. Stroud from Ohio State enters the 2022 campaign in the driver’s seat.

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

If the Atlanta Falcons are picking early, then one could reasonably assume that quarterbacks is a priority. However, the pick of Desmond Ridder in the third round a few weeks ago gives Atlanta some breathing room. If there is a player they love staring them in the face, they can choose to give Ridder a full season as the starter and try and build around him.

A player that should have been a Heisman finalist this past season — and may be a finalist in the season ahead — is that kind of player. Will Anderson Jr. could end up as the best prospect in the entire draft cycle next year, and would be a heck of an addition to the Atlanta defense.

The Detroit Lions elected not to address quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft, adding premium talent on defense with Aidan Hutchinson, and at wide receiver with Jameson Williams, in the first round. But if they are picking third-overall next year, quarterback is going to be a priority.

Bryce Young rode a productive season to the Heisman Trophy a season ago, and is back for his second year in the Alabama offense. There will be questions about his size and his frame, but his production, ball placement and ability to work from the pocket were strengths during the 2021 season, and could even improve in the year ahead.

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

If you look at the other “way too early” mock drafts out there, many have the Seattle Seahawks addressing quarterback with the first of their two selections in the first round. Will Levis from Kentucky is a popular selection here, and while I understand the reasoning, I have them going in a different direction right now, as the Seahawks tend to do.

Nolan Smith might be the next elite defender to come from the stellar Georgia defense, and has already drawn the attention of many scouts and evaluators:

Was asked this in recent interview: “When watching tape of the loaded Georgia defense for @seniorbowl did Travon Walker standout even though you weren’t watching him?”. The answer is, not as much as you’d expect from a No. 1 overall pick. But the prospect who did was Nolan Smith. pic.twitter.com/hZv4wlffuf

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) April 26, 2022

Seattle added Boye Mafe in the second round a few weeks ago, and the potential pairing of Smith and Mafe could make for an imposing defensive front.

(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Would the New York Jets, picking inside the top ten next draft cycle, move on from Zach Wilson? I strongly doubt that, and as a believer in the idea that quarterbacks should get three years to figure it out, even if the Jets are picking early due to struggles this upcoming season, they should continue to add around Wilson rather than move on from him.

The Jets addressed the pass rush in the first round a few weeks ago, trading back into the opening night of the draft to add Jermaine Johnson II from Florida State. But with an opportunity to bolster the interior of their defensive line, they add Jalen Carter from Georgia.

Could an interior defensive tackle rise this far up the board? Perhaps, perhaps not. But Carter’s athleticism and ability to get after the passer makes him a candidate for such a rise.

Plus, when you can pressure the quarterback like this from the inside, you are going to be valuable on Sundays:

(Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

Similar to the Zach Wilson discussion, it is hard to sit here at the end of May and believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars would move on from former first-overall selection Trevor Lawrence, even if they land inside the top ten for what would be the fifth-straight year. So they add some help for him, with the first receiver off the board.

That help is LSU wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Plays like this might just endear him to Jacksonville fans, and more importantly, Lawrence:

And now we get the aforementioned Will Levis, coming off the board to the New York Giants. First things first. With the Giants declining Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option, you would think that the writing is on the wall regarding his tenure with the organization. Certainly if the Giants are picking inside the top ten, then he has not taken the step forward that Giants fans have been waiting for the past few seasons. Plus, with a new head coach and general manager in town — who were not part of the decision to draft Jones in the first place — they might want to add their own choice at quarterback.

Could Levis be that player?

There is a lot of projection involved with making him a first-round pick, let alone someone inside the top ten. Assuming he improves with ball placement in 2022, he could put himself into the first-round mix. But we will need to see that from him this fall.

(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

For the past few weeks, Chicago Bears fans have been wondering whether first-year general manager Ryan Poles did enough for Justin Fields this off-season.

Perhaps one of the top returning receivers to college football this season would be a welcome addition?

Even playing with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up big numbers for the Ohio State offense, catching 15 passes in two separate game and setting a pair of records in the Rose Bowl, when both Wilson and Olave sat out to prepare for the draft. That one-game performance might be a preview of what Smith-Njigba will do in the year ahead.

Certainly quarterback could be at play here for the Carolina Panthers, but similar to the Atlanta Falcons, the addition of Matt Corral gives the organization some breathing room. They could decide to address quarterback here, or they could add at another position and give Corral some time.

The play here is the latter approach, as they add one of the top talents on the edge to pair with Brian Burns, and make it harder for opposing passers to feel comfortable in the pocket.

How uncomfortable?

Well…

Having added Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, it is unlikely that quarterback is on their list of needs entering 2023, even if they are picking in the top ten.

A position they could address? Cornerback. Bringing them to Georgia and Kelee Ringo, one of the top cornerbacks heading into the 2022 campaign.

He notched a pair of interceptions in his first full season with the Bulldogs, the second of which sealed the National Championship against Alabama:

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Looking at Washington’s roster as the 2022 season looms, an area they might want to address a year from now is the offensive line, particularly the left tackle spot. 2021 second-round pick Sam Cosmi is settling in as their starter on the right, with veteran Charles Leno Jr. slotted as their left tackle. But with Leno north of 30, finding a left tackle for the future is a wise investment.

Peter Skoronski was a center in high school who kicked outside after arriving at Northwestern, and he has been a mainstay on their offensive line the past two years. He was named a Second-Team All-Big Ten player as a true freshman, making every start for the Wildcats.

He played in 12 games last year and allowed a pair of sacks, but as you can see here, he held his own against the second-overall selection:

(Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)

Many, myself included, believed that the New England Patriots would add at linebacker early in the 2022 NFL draft, perhaps with Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean.

Instead, the organization added interior offensive lineman Cole Strange in the first round, and then speedy wide reciever Tyquan Thornton in the second.

With Dont’a Hightower a year older, and questions surrounding other elements of their linebacker room, adding at the position could be on the table next spring. Noah Sewell is Bill Belichick’s type of linebacker, with the ability to handle life against the run but also the athleticism to be a factor in coverage:

(Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)

Thanks to the pre-draft trade between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints, the Eagles are now on the clock with their pick from New Orleans.

How the Eagles fare in 2022 might rest on the right arm — and the legs — of quarterback Jalen Hurts. But given where the odds are right now for Philadelphia, the organization might be comfortable moving forward with Hurts for 2023. If that changes, quarterback might be the move here.

Instead, they look elsewhere.

The Eagles made a number of additions to their defense over the past few months, between free agency and the draft, but one position they did not address was safety. They added Reed Blankenship, an undrafted free agent, but focused on the other levels of their defense. That could change next spring, and a player to watch is Notre Dame’s Brandon Joseph. He began his career at Northwestern, but now steps into a secondary without Kyle Hamilton. If Joseph puts together another strong season, he will be in the first-round discussion.

(Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

One of the common selections during the most recent mock draft season for the Minnesota Vikings was a wide receiver. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are an impressive tandem, but Thielen’s recent injury history led many to think the organization would address receiver early in the draft. Instead, the Vikings looked to bolster their secondary, adding Lewis Cine at the end of the first round and Andrew Booth Jr. at the top of the second.

That might make wide receiver an early option for them next draft cycle. Jordan Addison was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school, and put up huge numbers last season for the Pittsburgh Panthers. Now he’s at USC, paired with quarterback Caleb Williams for new head coach Lincoln Riley. Expect even bigger numbers from him this fall.

Especially when he can make plays like this:

(Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins have a pair of picks in the first round, thanks to the trade with the San Francisco 49ers. This selection, as current Super Bowl odds indicate, would be their own. Would picking in this spot mean it was time to move on from Tua Tagovailoa?

Perhaps, but the organization might decide to give him a second year with head coach Mike McDaniel and his system, instead of adding at quarterback and resetting the QB clock.

With that assumption in place, they look to the defensive side of the football. This past season, Ojulari played in 12 games for the Tigers, registering 54 tackles, including 12 for a loss, and seven sacks. He is comfortable playing in a wide alignment using a two-point stance, or with his hand in the dirt shaded over the tackle. His quick first step will serve him well as he moves to the NFL.

Here’s that quick first step in action:

(Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports)

The bulk of the Las Vegas Raiders’ draft capital during the 2022 cycle was used to acquire wide receiver Davante Adams, reuniting him with former college teammate Derek Carr. Without a pick until the third round of the draft, the Raiders used that selection on interior offensive lineman Dylan Parham.

The organization did use a pair of picks on their defensive front, adding interior options Neil Farrell Jr. and Matthew Butler. While the Raiders also signed Bilal Nichols in free agency, finding another pass rusher to pair with Maxx Crosby would be a good early investment next draft cycle.

This past season, Isaiah Foskey started all 13 games for the Irish, leading the team with 11 sacks. That number places him third on Notre Dame’s all-time rankings. Foskey notched a sack in nine of Notre Dame’s games, and had two games with more than a sack. Imagine this across from Crosby a season from now:

(Brad McClenny-USA TODAY NETWORK)

While many observers believed the Arizona Cardinals would address their secondary early in the 2022 NFL draft, the Cardinals added to their defensive front in the third round, using a pair of selections to address that unit. Arizona drafted Myjai Sanders and Cameron Thomas, giving them options at that level of the defense.

And while Arizona did draft cornerback Christian Matthew in the seventh round, finding a cornerback early in the 2023 cycle might be a wise investment. Eli Ricks played in just six games last season, as his year was cut short due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. Even in limited action, Ricks managed to tally 11 total tackles and an interception.

He announced that he would be transferring last winter, and decided to play for Nick Saban at Alabama for the year ahead. He shows great awareness on the field, as he did on this interception against Florida from his stellar true freshman season:

Many Philadelphia Eagles fans, including the one and only Giovanni Hamilton, pleaded with general manager Howie Roseman to add at linebacker during the 2022 NFL draft:

“Please Howie for the love of god!” 😂@GioThePodcaster has some thoughts for the @Eagles front office and it’s too funny.

📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/b2C1L9a9JD

— NFL (@NFL) March 4, 2022

Perhaps Roseman was listening, as the Eagles drafted Nakobe Dean in the third round after he fell due to injuries. Yet maybe Giovanni would love to see Dean get a running mate for the 2023 cycle, which is what the Eagles do with this selection.

Trenton Simpson was a five-star recruit according to 247Sports, and he was an immediate contributor in 2020 as a true freshman, playing in 12 games and making three starts. That season he registered 28 total tackles, four sacks, and 6.5 tackles for a loss. This past season, he played in all 13 of Clemson’s games, making 12 starts. He set career-high marks in total tackles (65), tackles for a loss (12.5) and sacks (6.5).

Looking at the Tennessee Titans’ roster right now, there are a few different directions you can imagine the organization going next off-season. Offensive line is perhaps one direction, and interior defensive line is another. Sure, Tennessee can count on Jeffery Simmons, but finding a running mate for him on the interior could be a priority.

That could lead them to Clemson’s Bryan Breese.

He stepped into the lineup as a true freshman in 2020, notching 33 tackles and four sacks, and forcing a fumble over 12 games. His four sacks were the most by a true freshman interior lineman in all of college football. Despite seeing action in just four game last year, as he lost the bulk of the season with an ACL injury, he was still named a Third-Team All-ACC selection. In just those four games, he managed to record 15 tackles — including three for a loss — 1.5 sacks and an interception. He moves more like an EDGE than a pure defensive tackle. If he is completely healthy for the start of the 2022 campaign, Bresee should put himself in the first-round discussion.

Oh, and he can do this when healthy:

(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)

The Houston Texans are back on the clock with their second pick in the first round. In this scenario, they added at quarterback with the first-overall selection, and now they give him C.J. Stroud a threat in the passing game.

As a true freshman in 2020, Marvin Mims caught 37 passes for 610 yards and nine touchdowns. Last season, Mims caught 32 passes for 705 yards and five scores. Despite the departure of Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams to USC, Mims remained with the Sooners and will catch passes from Dillon Gabriel in the fall. With a huge campaign next season, Mims will put himself into the first-round mix.

And plays like this will help:

(Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports)

Last season, cornerback depth was certainly tested in Baltimore. A rash of injuries in the secondary had the Ravens scrambling late in the season. While Baltimore addressed cornerback depth in this past draft, adding both Jalyn Armour-Davis and Damarion Williams in the fourth round, making an early-round investment in the secondary could be in the cards next draft cycle. During the 2020 campaign, Cam Smith from South Carolina played in eight games and made three starts, leading the team with a pair of interceptions. Smith notched his first interception against Vanderbilt, and snared his second against Missouri, in his first collegiate start.

A year ago, Smith played in 11 games and started seven, leading the team with 14 passes defended. He grabbed three interceptions on the year.

His awareness in coverage is a big reason that he produced at a high level last season. On this play against Clemson, watch as he peels off the hitch route to get under the corner route from the slot receiver, nearly leading to an interception:

(Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)

With the acquisition of Matt Ryan via trade, the Indianapolis Colts are in a position to wait on adding a potential quarterback of the future.

But that does not mean they have to wait.

Before he was sidelined with a wrist injury that required surgery, Phil Jurkovec looked like he would enjoy a draft-season rise of his own last year. But that injury derailed those plans, and when he returned from the injury in November, he struggled in losses to Florida State and Wake Forest. During 2020, however, Jurokvec looked like a potential early-round pick at the position.

The bet here is that he looks much more like the quarterback we saw in 2020, and that the Colts agree and bring him in as their successor to Ryan.

(Michael Caterina/South Bend Tribune-USA TODAY Sports)

As the 2021 season — and post-season — drew to a close every member of the media believed the Cincinnati Bengals were going to rework their offensive line. The organization did just that, adding Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins before the draft. They also drafted interior offensive lineman Cordell Volson in the fourth round.

However, the team did see a key departure, tight end C.J. Uzomah.

While they brought in Hayden Hurst in free agency, the chance to add at the position is on the table next spring. Michael Mayer looks like a future NFL tight end, with the ability to handle the blocking responsibilities the position requires but also the athleticism to be a weapon in the passing game.

(Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

Jerry Jones adding a player from Arkansas? Hmmm…

Jalen Catalon took over as a starter for his redshirt sophomore season, and registered 99 total tackles, three interceptions and seven pass breakups. He was named a First-Team All-SEC player by the media. He started six games for Arkansas last season, but dealt with injuries throughout the year. He played through a broken hand suffered early in the year, and then was put on the shelf for the season with a shoulder injury. Catalon had 46 total tackles when his season ended.

He made a somewhat surprising decision to return to Arkansas, but one more campaign like his previous years will have him in the first-round discussion.

(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

This…this requires a decent amount of projection.

With four quarterbacks off the board already, a popular selection for the Seattle Seahawks in this spot is Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke. If Van Dyke lives up to expectations — which are high right now around the Hurricanes — then he could find himself in the first-round discussion, and maybe even early.

He began the 2021 campaign as the backup behind King, but after the starter went down with an injury, Van Dyke stepped into the lineup and did not look back. He started the final nine games of the season and finished the year having completed 62.3% of his passes for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns, throwing just six interceptions. He was named the ACC Rookie of the Year and the ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year for his efforts.

Plays like this are reasons why there is excitement around Miami this spring:

(Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)

Getting their best five to put in front of the talented Justin Herbert was a priority for the Los Angeles Chargers this past off-season, and the selection of Zion Johnson, who spent time at tackle and guard while in college and even played some center at the Senior Bowl, was a nod to that goal.

But they could still benefit from adding at tackle opposite Rashawn Slater next off-season, and the selection of Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. is a step towards that. Johnson is another versatile lineman, who played on the inside before kicking outside to tackle for this season. But he also shined at right guard for the Buckeyes a season ago:

Paris Johnson Jr: Most pass block snaps played (461) among Big Ten Guards last year without allowing a sack pic.twitter.com/lom88saLNW

— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 7, 2022

(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)

The Miami Dolphins are now on the clock with their second of two first-round picks, this one courtesy of the trade with the San Francisco 49ers that allowed Mike McDaniel’s former team to draft Trey Lance.

Having added to the defensive front with their first selection, the Dolphins turn to the secondary with this pick. Malachi Moore looked like a future first-round selection during his true freshman season, but struggled with injuries and was in-and-out of the lineup last season. If he looks like the player he was as a true freshman, the Dolphins are getting a versatile safety perfect for today’s NFL.

(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Death, taxes and football writers mocking wide receivers to the Green Bay Packers in the first round.

After the Davante Adams trade, everyone under the sun believed the Packers would add a receiver in the first round back in April, especially since the organization had two picks on opening night. Instead, Green Bay added a pair of defenders, in Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt.

While they drafted Christian Watson at the top of the second round, we are back assuming the Packers bring in more receiver talent next spring. Josh Downs is a shifty receiver who can track the ball well in the vertical passing game, but he is also an effective and willing run blocker, an ideal fit for Green Bay’s offense.

(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)

With the addition of George Karlaftis at the end of the first round — one of the few things I got right in last year’s version of this piece — the Kansas City Chiefs bolstered their pass rush. But finding another interior option on the defensive front should be a priority next off-season.

Byron Young played in a rotational role against in 2020, recording 29 tackles as the Crimson Tide won the national championship. Against Arkansas that season, Young tallied a team-high seven tackles, and was named the team’s defensive player of the week by the coaching staff. He played in all 15 games last season, making seven starts for Alabama. He recorded 39 tackles on the year, including nine for a loss. Young also notched a pair of quarterback sacks on the campaign.

Alabama used him all over the defensive line, as he saw 182 snaps on the edge and 229 on the interior. He has a quick first step and is constantly fighting to get to the ball, as he did on this play from the SEC Championship Game:

(Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports)

This selection largely hinges on what we see from Jeff Okudah in the year ahead. After making Okudah the third-overall selection in the 2020 NFL draft, the Detroit Lions have seen him struggle with injuries over the past two seasons. He dealt with a hamstring injury during his rookie training camp, missing the season opener. He then was put on injured reserve after suffering a core muscle injury that cost him the final few games of his rookie year. Then, Okudah suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in the season-opening game against the San Francisco 49ers, putting him on the shelf for the rest of the 2021 season.

Depending on how he fares this year — or even if the Lions want to add around him should Okudah live up to his pre-draft expectation — cornerback could be in play for Detroit with this pick received from the Los Angeles Rams.

Clark Phillips III has been a mainstay for the Utah secondary since setting foot on campus back in 2020. He started all five games for the Utes that season as a true freshman, recording 25 total tackles, a pair of pass breakups and an interception, which he returned for a touchdown against Washington State. He started all 14 games for Utah last season, recording 63 total tackles which led Utah defensive backs. He recorded 13 pass breakups and a pair of interceptions, and he led the Pac-12 with 15 passes defended (13 breakups and the two interceptions). He was named a Second-Team All-Pac-12 player by both the coaches and the Associated Press at the end of the season.

(Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

I have never claimed to be perfect.

Let’s put that out front here.

After the watch list of linebackers was posted, some dear friends pointed out that I omitted Alabama linebacker Henry To’oto’o. That…was a mistake. He is certainly a linebacker to watch, and he might be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ radar next off-season.

At the end of this year, Lavonte David will enter the first of three void years under his current contract. In addition, Devin White will be in the final year of his contract during the 2023 season. So linebacker could be a priority for Tampa Bay next draft.

As for To’oto’o, after playing for Tennessee and starting 22 of 23 games, he transfered to Alabama for the prior season. He led Alabama wit h113 tackles, and added 8.5 tackles for a loss along with four sacks. With one more solid season, To’oto’o will be in the first-round mix. Or at a least, he’ll be on draft watch lists, like he should have been on mine.

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Right now, the Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites according to our friends at Tipico, and you can understand why with the additions they have made over the past few seasons, and the fact that Josh Allen is a football-throwing alien.

Assuming the Bills do indeed hoist the Lombardi Trophy when the season is over, they’ll be picking last in the first round. So why not add another weapon for that football-throwing alien?

Quentin Johnson has been a dynamic playmaker for the TCU Horned Frogs for the past two seasons. As a true freshman in 2020, he caught 22 passes for 487 yards and a pair of touchdowns, averaging 22.1 yards per reception. That still stands as the best yards per catch average from a true freshman in conference history.

During the 2021 campaign, Johnson led the team with 634 receiving yards and averaged another 19.2 yards per reception, catching 33 passes and scoring six times. He missed three games due to injuries, but still managed to produce at a high level for TCU. With a healthy 2022, Johnson will be firmly in the first-round discussion.