INDIANAPOLIS — Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ meeting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.
*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Colts by 2½.
*History lesson, Part I: This won’t take long. The Colts lead the overall series, 8-7, but the Bucs have won three of the last four. The most recent was a 38-31 Tampa Bay win at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 28, 2021. That should be remembered as the last time the Colts faced quarterback Tom Brady. There were 20 chapters in the Colts-Brady docudrama, and Brady generally enjoyed the upper hand. He was 16-4 as a starter against Indy, including 4-1 in the playoffs.
In the final meeting, Brady passed for 226 yards and one touchdown, but running back Leonard Fournette did the most damage by rushing for 100 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning 28-yard TD with 20 seconds remaining.
*History lesson, Part II: This is a current-events version. As the 5-5 Colts emerge from their bye, they find themselves in the “In The Hunt” category for postseason consideration. They’re the AFC’s No. 9 seed — seven teams make the playoffs — but are just one game behind No. 6 Houston (6-4) and No. 7 Pittsburgh (6-4). The Colts are tied with Denver and Cincinnati at 5-5 but currently own tiebreakers because they have a better record against conference opponents.
*History lesson, Part III: If the Colts are to remain relevant over the final two months of the season, they must start taking care of business at home against the Bucs. They’re 1-4 at Lucas Oil Stadium and have never earned a playoff berth with five losses at home. The only time they earned a Wild Card spot with a 4-4 home record was in the strike-shortened 1987 season — 4-4 at home, 5-2 on the road, 9-6 overall. Four of the Colts’ final seven games are at Lucas Oil Stadium, but that only matters if they re-establish home-field advantage.
It’s hard to imagine, but they’ve won just three of their last 14 home games.
*Establish an identity: And that means establish the run game behind tailbacks Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss and the offensive line. Consecutive wins against Carolina and New England prior to the bye lifted the Colts to the edge of playoff relevance, but it’s going to be difficult stacking wins unless they can inject life into the run game. They’ve been limited to 148 total yards on the ground and 2.6 yards per attempt the last two games. Taylor’s numbers are equally as lackluster — 116 yards on 41 attempts, 2.8 per carry.
The Panthers and Patriots crowded the line and dared the Colts to run. The stacked front limited Indy to just two rushes of at least 10 yards. In back-to-back losses to Cleveland and New Orleans, the Colts averaged 166 yards per game and had seven attempts that gained at least 13 yards.
Tampa Bay’s defense has been nothing special — No. 26 in yards allowed and No. 27 in yards per play — but it’s been stout against the run. The Bucs are No. 6 in fewest rush yards per game (90.0) and No. 5 in yards per attempt (3.7).
*Attack the Bucs’ weakness: OK, here’s where it gets complicated. We firmly believe head coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter must lean on Taylor and Moss. But the Bucs possess a pass defense that’s one of the NFL’s absolute worst — No. 31 in yards per game (270.9) and No. 30 in yards per pass play (7.4). It’s allowed 16 touchdown passes and 11.8 yards per reception.
In short, the Bucs can be thrown against.
To maximize the effectiveness of Taylor and Moss, Gardner Minshew II needs to up his game. Since throwing for at least 300 yards in consecutive losses to Jacksonville and Cleveland, he’s managed just 213 against New Orleans, 127 against the Panthers and 194 against the Patriots.
We’re not asking for 40 attempts and 300 yards from Minshew against the Bucs, but he’s got to be more efficient and productive. He’s averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt and 9.2 yards per completion over the last three games. Those numbers are unacceptable.
This is an opportunity for wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs to make a difference. Downs has been dealing with a knee injury and should have benefitted from the bye week.
The Bucs defense must adapt to the absence of two cornerstones. Leading tackler Lavonte David has been ruled out with a groin injury and cornerback Jamel Dean is out with ankle/foot issues. Linebacker Devin White is questionable with a foot injury.
*Corner concerns: After facing mediocre passing attacks the last two games, Colts’ cornerbacks must brace for serious threats in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin leads the Bucs with 50 catches for 561 yards while Evans has piled up 780 yards and seven TDs on 48 receptions. Running back Rachaad White has been a third option for Baker Mayfield with 41 catches, 354 yards and one TD.
Speaking of Mayfield, he’s been solid with 15 TDs, six interceptions and a 91.5 rating. He’s completing 64.6% of his passes and averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.
The Colts’ pass rush rediscovered its bite against Carolina and New England with nine total sacks. Defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo is coming off a three-sack game against the Patriots and leads Indy with six this year, which exceeds his total from his first two seasons.
*And the winner is: Colts 23, Bucs. 20. We’ve said this so many times before, but just find a way. A favorable schedule has allowed the Colts to remain in playoff contention, but they’ve got to do their share of the heavy lifting.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter/X at @mchappell51.
