Editor’s Note: This story originally appeared on Forbes Advisor.
In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Maurisa Potts made a bold move. She quit her job as marketing director of Northern Virginia’s Crystal City Business Improvement District to launch her own marketing and PR firm.
“Folks thought I was crazy,” Potts says now.
But she may have actually been crazy smart.
Fifteen years after exiting her full-time job in Crystal City, Potts is flourishing as founder and CEO of Spotted MP, based in New Alexandria, an unincorporated community south of Alexandria, Virginia. She and her two full-time employees operate the marketing and PR firm.
Not only has Potts proven to be a recession-resilient entrepreneur, but she’s immersed in a small business sector that’s one of the most recession-proof in the U.S. for 2023, according to a Forbes Advisor analysis.
10 Most Recession-Proof Businesses in 2023
Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and indication of popularity from Google search trends, Forbes Advisor assessed 60 small-business types and determined which of them are the most and least recession-proof in 2023.
We assigned each business type a score based on its performance across several categories: Growth in number of businesses during the Great Recession and the latter part of the pandemic, growth in wages during the same periods, and estimated startup costs.
PR agencies like Potts’ recorded at least some growth in all categories, a low startup cost (under $10,000) and high wage growth during the Great Recession (+23%). But, according to our analysis, bookstores shine brightest among recession-proof small businesses.
At 43%, bookstores saw the biggest increase in the number of businesses during the latter part of the pandemic. Coupled with a moderate startup cost, bookstores also enjoyed steady wage growth during both the Great Recession (+13%) and the latter part of the pandemic (+16%), making this type of business the most recession-proof of all.
In 2022, The New York Times reported that more than 300 new independent bookstores had popped up across the country in the previous couple of years, calling this “a surprising and welcome revival after an early pandemic slump.”
The Financial Times attributes the recession-proof nature of the book business to the fact that books are relatively cheap “and yield an impressive bang for their buck in terms of entertainment.”
1. Bookstores
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: -10.02%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 13.02%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 42.75%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 16.33%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $75,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 55
2. PR agencies
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: 4.66%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 22.87%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 13.90%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 6.64%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 51
3. Interior design services
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: -11.08%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 30.31%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 8.24%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 8.34%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 50
4. Staffing agencies
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: -3.02%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 15.83%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 19.64%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 13.88%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 48
5. Marketing consulting services
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: 7.68%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 10.20%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 20.36%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 5.01%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 47
6. Food trucks
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: 13.38%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 4.55%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 22.37%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 11.62%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $50,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 46
7. Car rental services
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: -7.05%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 14.67%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: -3.39%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 30.78%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $100,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 45
Best Credit Cards For Car Rental Insurance
8. Graphic design services
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: -3.48%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 22.37%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 8.67%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 8.95%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 45
9. Advertising agencies
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: -1.38%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 5.52%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 25.50%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 11.92%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 44
10. Residential property managers
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in number of businesses: 7.08%
- Great Recession (2008-2010) Change in average weekly wages: 6.51%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in number of businesses: 6.93%
- Late Pandemic (2021-2022) Change in average weekly wages: 15.39%
- Estimated average startup cost: Under $10,000
- Total Score (out of 100): 44
Methodology
We used data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to assign each business type a score in the following categories:
- Percentage change in number of businesses and average weekly wages during the Great Recession (measured from Q1 2008 to Q4 2010)
- Percentage change in the number of businesses and average weekly wages during the latter part of the pandemic (measured from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022).
- Estimated average startup cost (compiled from a range of industry-specific sources and designed to focus on minimum ranges of capital needed to start a certain business type).
